Another busy legal day in the books, the case of FTC v. Microsoft will end tomorrow. It was a surprisingly quiet day compared to previous ones, with Microsoft head Satya Nadella giving soft evidence, Activision CEO Bobby Kotick speaking calmly to his FTC interrogators, and plenty of financial news.
We also saw, briefly, Nadella’s collaboration with Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley on the love of Candy Crush. Interesting.
Detachment From Me, But Not From You
Console isolation has been part of how video games have worked since the beginning of video games. But hearing Xbox and friends say this a few days ago, everyone in the industry hates the idea.
Figures such as Microsoft head Satya Nadella and Activision CEO Bobby Kotick today make isolationism seem less and less like a virus, destroying their ability to do business on other platforms and reach mass markets of people. For example, Nadella said that he has “no love” for it, while Kotick stressed that taking Call of Duty to Xbox would “really damage” the business.
All of this is in line with Spencer’s comment. Together, Xbox and its witnesses and lawyers seem to be arguing that the whole idea of exclusivity is a dirty trick they’re playing with because Sony forced their hand. If Sony would just stop paying for fantasy games like Final Fantasy XVI, they argue Xbox wouldn’t have to act like it has Activision to compete.
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It’s no surprise, then, that Sony Interactive Entertainment CEO Jim Ryan sang a very different tune yesterday at his video. He added that while he “didn’t like” Redfall and Starfield going to Xbox post-Zenimax, he “didn’t argue with it” and didn’t see it as anti-competitive. Ryan fails to get on a high horse when Xbox has already shared information in court that PlayStation alone is superior to Xbox. Where they draw the line is, of course, on Call of Duty: a franchise so large and successful that (the FTC and Sony argue) the very idea of being the only one could create an impossible problem for PlayStation.
At this point, it’s hard to imagine how Xbox taking over Call of Duty alone isn’t going to make a big return on Xbox. The loss of Sony’s huge market share would reduce the already existing profits of Call of Duty, and (as several bosses have reminded us) the same fantasy “desire” that the game’s audience can cause could hurt the brand. But one thing to keep in mind is that Ryan isn’t thinking about when Xbox takes over Call of Duty next week, month, or year, in comparable markets. In fact, Ryan seems to fear the tables are actually turning, becoming a Call of Duty-less future in which the PlayStation is, for whatever reason, down, as the Xbox is now.
Safely on top of the world, the PlayStation would be better off without Call of Duty. But Ryan knows that this won’t last forever. The “console wars,” online as they may be, do indeed come out with winners and losers. While PlayStation may be confident in its plans for five years, or even ten years, at some point, Ryan is worried that the promise of Spencer Call of Duty will end. And when that happens, if Sony is still on top of the world, the loss of Call of Duty would be devastating.
It makes sense to be anti-isolationist when isolationism is the weapon of the winners, and you are the loser. But markets are unpredictable. There is no way to guarantee where any of the contenders will be ten years from now. Ryan seems to believe that if he’s not on top when the deal ends, Xbox will do to Sony exactly what Sony has been doing to Xbox for years… Whether he’s right or not, it’s up to the court to decide.